Orlando, Fla. – September 11, 2026 -- Backswing Ventures, an early-stage defense venture capital firm, is underwriting every investment in its portfolio for an independent 3-5x return rather than betting the fund on a single breakout winner.
Carta data shows unicorn payouts are stalling, not disappearing
Among 2017 and 2018 vintage venture funds old enough to have realized outcomes, fewer than 20% have returned even 1x DPI to limited partners, according to Carta's Q1 2026 fund-performance data. Backswing argues paper valuations do not pay LPs back; distributions do.
SpaceX illustrates the timeline problem at scale. Founded in 2002, the company did not deliver a liquid outcome to shareholders until its initial public offering closed in June 2026 -- 24 years later.
Median venture-backed exit sits far below unicorn territory
PitchBook data shows the median U.S. venture-backed acquisition in 2023 was $60.6 million, with acquisitions accounting for roughly 69% of U.S. venture exits that year. Backswing says most venture-backed companies need a buyer, not industry dominance, and one is usually available well below unicorn status.
Kyle Asman, Founder and Managing Partner of Backswing Ventures, said an 8% stake in a $250 million outcome pays the same as a 1% stake in a $2 billion outcome, and the smaller outcome is easier to secure from the entry price forward.
Rocket Lab's $275 million Geost deal validates the component-level bet
Backswing applies the same logic to defense: a startup does not need to build a full weapons system to generate a venture-scale exit. Rocket Lab's 2025 acquisition of Geost, paid at $275 million for electro-optical and infrared sensor technology designed to plug into multiple national-security platforms, is the model Backswing points to for component-level businesses.
Fund II crossed 1.0x DPI in under three years
Backswing structures each investment as an individually justified bet -- price, ownership stake, market size and a credible buyer all evaluated before considering upside scenarios. Asman said a $200 million exit is not a failure simply because another company sold for $2 billion, framing the firm's goal as building a fund that was never counting on a single winner. Backswing's Fund II surpassed 1.0x DPI in under three years, ranking among the top-performing 2023-vintage venture funds in the country.