Hamburg – October 27, 2026 -- German corporate insolvencies will rise 8% in 2026 to 25,900 cases, the highest level in 13 years, according to Allianz Trade's latest global insolvency study. The credit insurer expects no relief in 2027, with cases flat (0%) at the same level.
Allianz Trade raises German forecast well above spring estimate
In spring, Allianz Trade projected a 2% rise for Germany in 2026, or 4% if the Middle East conflict persisted. Transport and logistics, construction, hospitality, and the automotive and mechanical engineering industries are hit hardest, according to Milo Bogaerts, CEO of Allianz Trade for Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
Cases have climbed a cumulative 85% since 2021 and sit 30% above pre-pandemic levels, though still well below global financial crisis peaks. A 5% decline to 24,600 cases is forecast for 2028, as economic headwinds ease and fiscal stimulus takes effect.
Global insolvencies rise for a fifth straight year
Worldwide insolvencies are forecast to grow 5% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, after 6% in 2025. The global peak shifts back one year to 2028, when cases are expected to dip 1% from a very high base.
Bogaerts warns that Germany's export orientation exposes it to insolvency waves abroad, and that cases are currently rising particularly fast in its most important export markets.
Higher-for-longer rates and energy costs squeeze margins
Allianz Trade projects global GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027 and 2.6% in 2028, against 3% in 2025. Energy costs remain high, limiting governments' fiscal room.
Policy rates in 60% of countries will stay higher in 2027 than over the previous 12 to 24 months, said Allianz Trade CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui. A 100-basis-point rise in bank lending rates would add €6 billion to €10 billion in interest expenses in Western Europe, squeezing margins in renewable energy, telecommunications and power. Energy-intensive European industries face additional profitability pressure from longer-term energy costs.
The stock of active companies grew about 10% between 2021 and 2025, enlarging the pool of fragile firms. Fewer than half of new European companies survive beyond five years.
2.7 million jobs at risk worldwide, with Europe and North America at 13-year highs
Around 2.7 million jobs are directly at risk across 2026 and 2027, up 180,000 on 2025 and 700,000 on 2023, the first year of the post-pandemic insolvency upswing. Construction, retail and services are most exposed, said Maxime Lemerle, lead analyst for insolvency research.
- Europe: 1.6 million jobs, nearly 60% of the total, led by France (268,000), Germany (239,000) and the United Kingdom (213,000)
- North America: 650,000 jobs, a 24% share
- Asia: 305,000 jobs, an 11% share
Europe and North America would both reach 13-year highs.
AI adoption accelerates failures in small, less diversified markets
Allianz Trade analyzed eight EU economies and nine sectors. Macroeconomic conditions and sector fundamentals remain the dominant drivers of insolvencies, and AI adoption does not yet correlate with insolvency trends overall.
Smaller, less diversified markets are the exception. Belgium and Sweden have the highest AI adoption rate in the sample at 35%, and their most digitalized sectors post the highest insolvency counts. The information and communication sector, with a 70% adoption rate, shows above-average insolvencies in five of the eight countries. Lemerle attributes this to a competitive gap between early adopters and laggards.