Boston – October 14, 2026 -- Corporate and investment banking (CIB) revenues, including nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), are on track to reach a record $1.1 trillion in 2026, up more than 7% from 2025, according to Boston Consulting Group's 2026 Corporate and Investment Banking Report, "A Golden Window for Growth." BCG projects the total revenue pool will reach about $1.4 trillion by 2030, growing roughly 5% a year. 2026 will be the sixth consecutive year of growth.
The report, based on BCG Expand data and BCG analysis, argues that record earnings give CIB leaders a limited window to build the capabilities needed for the next growth phase. Banks are beginning to pivot from product-led to client- and platform-led models.
Hedge funds and sponsors outgrow traditional corporate clients
Over the past two years, sponsor revenues have grown about 5.5% a year and hedge fund revenues about 9%, compared with roughly 1.7% for traditional corporate clients. For sponsors, financing, markets and treasury carry more value than the advisory mandate itself, BCG says. Sponsors and hedge funds tend to buy advisory, financing, markets and transaction banking together, yet most CIBs still price and staff those products separately.
NBFIs' share of the CIB revenue pool has grown almost fivefold, from roughly 4% in 2013 to an estimated 19% by the end of 2026. BCG expects about 23% by 2030. Private-credit fund financing is the fastest-growing product area, with revenues compounding at roughly 15% a year from 2022 through 2025.
Julian Hein, a BCG managing director and partner, said banks need one accountable relationship owner rather than a handful of product teams to meet sponsor and hedge fund expectations.
Asia-Pacific grows fastest at 5% a year while North America holds 46% share
Excluding NBFIs, North America remains the largest region with roughly 46% of the revenue pool, growing about 4% a year to 2030. Its lead widens in absolute terms even though its share barely moves.
Asia-Pacific is expected to grow fastest, at about 5% a year, driven by three engines: Japan's rates and foreign exchange normalization, an equity and debt capital markets boom in India, and Southeast Asia, particularly Singapore, as a hub for private capital, transaction banking and wealth management.
Europe, the Middle East and Africa is expected to grow about 3% a year, with its share of the global pool declining further. In the UK, corporates with more than £1 billion in turnover account for roughly 60% of the addressable corporate market, the highest among major European markets. Continental Europe faces slower, more fragmented growth, and US banks are expanding there, raising competitive intensity. The Middle East is the region's fastest-growing pool, though growth remains volatile and subject to geopolitical developments.
AI could free up to 40% of middle- and back-office capacity by 2030
BCG estimates that up to 40% of current full-time-equivalent capacity in middle- and back-office functions could be freed by 2030, measured against today's job profiles. That is not equal to net head count reduction, as much of it may be absorbed by new roles in higher-value, judgment-intensive work.
By 2030, leading banks are expected to run technology-led, broadly AI-enabled operating models. Leaders are on track to sustain a cost-to-income ratio of roughly 53% and a return on tangible equity of roughly 21%, versus roughly 68% and 10% for laggards.
First movers in global markets, investment banking and corporate banking are already capturing a disproportionate share of value, the report finds. Banks that wait risk finding that talent, platform standards and client relationships are locked in.