Refiners Book Q3 Profit Surge as Brent Holds Near $104

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Refiners Book Q3 Profit Surge as Brent Holds Near $104

Houston – November 03, 2026 -- Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy reported third-quarter net income of $7.4 billion and $6.8 billion, up from $1.4 billion and $1.1 billion a year earlier, as wider crack spreads lifted refining margins while U.S.-Iran diplomacy remained unresolved.

Brent trades in a $6.44 range as no ceasefire is announced

As of 10:23 a.m. ET Tuesday, January Brent traded at $103.97 a barrel, against Monday's close of $104.77, after a session range of $100.80 to $107.24. December West Texas Intermediate stood at $96.49, against a Monday close of $96.46. No ceasefire agreement had been announced as of Tuesday morning.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on October 31 that talks with Iran have never stopped, held directly in some cases but often through intermediaries. He gave no time frame. Iran's state news agency IRNA reported Monday that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi named Doha and Islamabad as active mediators. It said he tied the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the full resumption of talks to unconditional acceptance of Iran's conditions.

Qatar's prime minister backed diplomatic efforts toward freedom of maritime navigation on Monday. A day earlier, Qatar condemned an attack on the Nakilat-owned LNG carrier Al Mayeda in the Arabian Gulf.

EIA forecasts $105 Brent in the fourth quarter on constrained Middle East flows

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's October outlook put crude production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day in September, down from a 10.9 million b/d peak in May. It forecast Brent spot at $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming Middle East flows stay constrained. The agency said higher tanker risk has added to shipping costs and the oil price risk premium.

U.S. regular gasoline averaged $4.153 a gallon on November 2, down 11.6 cents on the week but $1.134 above a year ago. On-highway diesel averaged $6.292, up $2.539 from a year earlier. Commercial crude inventories were 410.6 million barrels in the week ending October 23, 4% below the five-year average. The seven OPEC+ countries that met November 1 held December required production at September levels and will meet again November 29.

Marathon Petroleum lifts its dividend 10% and adds a $5 billion buyback

Marathon's refineries ran at 100% of crude capacity, for throughput of 3.2 million b/d. Refining and marketing margin rose to $45.70 per barrel from $17.60, which the company attributed to higher crack spreads in all regions. Earnings reached $26.59 per diluted share versus $4.51.

The company returned $3.3 billion to shareholders in the quarter, raised its quarterly dividend 10% and added a $5 billion repurchase authorization. It also agreed to sell its St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries and related midstream assets for $4.2 billion, with closing expected at the end of 2026.

Valero's Brent-WCS Houston spread widens to $16.49 from $6.93

Valero earned $23.89 per share on throughput of 3.0 million b/d. Refining margin per barrel was $39.24 versus $13.14 a year earlier. Brent less WTI averaged $5.37 against $3.11, and Brent less Maya crude was $13.37 against $7.14. Valero also completed its St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project.

Chevron reports $9.9 billion profit but lower output and international sales

Chevron's third-quarter earnings were $9.9 billion, or $5.06 per diluted share, with adjusted earnings of $10.4 billion. Average Brent was $97 a barrel versus $69 a year earlier. Production fell year on year, which the company attributed to lower entitlements at higher prices and Middle East conflict impacts. International refined product sales dropped 9% on supply disruptions.

U.S. refinery crude unit throughput set a record of 1.09 million b/d. Chevron cut total debt by a further $3.5 billion and declared a $1.78 quarterly dividend payable December 10.

Cheniere raises 2026 EBITDA guidance to $8.75-$9.25 billion on 188 cargoes

Cheniere reported revenues of about $6.2 billion and net income of about $1.2 billion. It exported 188 LNG cargoes, up from 163 a year earlier. The company lifted full-year Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $7.90-$8.40 billion. The seventh train of CCL Stage 3 reached substantial completion ahead of schedule and within budget, adding over 20% to LNG production capacity. The quarterly dividend rose over 12% to $0.625 per share.

Halliburton sees mid-single-digit 2027 growth as North America revenue falls 5%

Halliburton's revenue was flat sequentially at $5.7 billion, with net income of $417 million, or $0.50 per diluted share. International revenue rose 3% to $3.5 billion. Middle East/Asia climbed 8% to $1.4 billion on activity in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. North America fell 5% to $2.2 billion on lower U.S. Land pressure pumping. The company repurchased about $250 million of stock.

CEO Jeff Miller expects mid-single-digit revenue growth and operating margins of about 15% in 2027, assuming a flat North America market. He described the market as in "one of the largest energy disruptions in history" and expects restoration work to drive multi-year oilfield services demand.

Wednesday's EIA weekly inventory report, due at 10:30 a.m. ET, is the next scheduled data point.

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