SHERIDAN, WYOMING - April 13, 2026 - Umicore has restructured its capital deployment strategy through 2028, cutting planned capital expenditure by €1.4 billion versus its previous plan while targeting adjusted EBITDA of €1.0-1.2 billion and a cumulative free cash flow of €1.0-1.2 billion by 2028. The pivot places strict cost discipline at the center of the group's recovery strategy, with Battery Cathode Materials redesigned as a standalone value-recovery operation and the three foundation businesses-Catalysis, Recycling, and Specialty Materials-repositioned as the primary cash engines. The recalibration follows a formal Battery Materials strategy review presented by CEO Bart Sap and the Executive Leadership Team at Umicore's Capital Markets Day.
Capital reallocation and investment ceiling
Total investments for the 2025-2028 period are capped at €2.1 billion, comprising €1.6 billion in capital expenditure and approximately €500 million in equity contributions to the IONWAY joint venture with Volkswagen's PowerCo. Within the €1.6 billion capex envelope, less than €500 million is allocated to Battery Cathode Materials-specifically €370 million to complete capacity buildout in Nysa, Poland (targeting 45 GWh) and Korea (targeting 40 GWh). The remaining capex is directed toward the foundation businesses, with a notable investment in the Precious Metals Refining plant in Hoboken, Belgium, designed to deepen competitive positioning and strengthen environmental performance.
The Battery Cathode Materials capex reduction relative to the prior plan stands at €800 million over the four-year period. Battery recycling investment has been postponed. The group frames the tighter allocation as enabling more balanced deployment across business segments rather than concentrating risk in a single high-growth but capital-intensive unit.
Foundation business targets
Catalysis carries the largest free cash flow mandate, targeting revenues of approximately €1.8 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 25%, ROCE above 35%, and cumulative free cash flow exceeding €1.4 billion over 2025-2028. Recycling aims for revenues of approximately €800 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 35%, ROCE above 40%, and around €400 million in cumulative free cash flow over the same period. Specialty Materials targets revenues of approximately €600 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin above 20%, and ROCE above 12.5%, contributing around €300 million in cumulative free cash flow.
Taken together, the foundation businesses are expected to generate between €2.0 and €2.2 billion in cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2028, effectively cross-subsidizing the value recovery effort in Battery Cathode Materials and funding the Hoboken refining upgrade.
Battery Cathode Materials recovery path
The standalone Battery Cathode Materials plan targets adjusted EBITDA positivity in 2026, followed by adjusted EBIT and free cash flow positivity in 2027. By 2028, the unit is expected to generate revenues of approximately €1.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of €275-325 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin above 25%, and ROCE of approximately 9%. These milestones depend on maximizing plant utilization across existing assets and leveraging take-or-pay provisions embedded in customer contracts.
Umicore is simultaneously exploring partnership options in Battery Cathode Materials to accelerate value recovery beyond what standalone execution can deliver. No specific partner has been announced. The IONWAY JV with PowerCo remains active, with Umicore committing approximately €500 million in equity contributions over the plan period, of which €400 million was already included in 2025 guidance at the time of the 2024 full-year results publication.
Business impact
Procurement leads and materials sourcing officers at automotive OEMs and battery cell manufacturers must reassess supply security from Umicore's cathode active materials network. The Poland and Korea capacity build-capped at 45 GWh and 40 GWh respectively-defines the outer limit of volume Umicore can contractually commit through 2028. Customers relying on take-or-pay structures gain cost predictability, but those outside existing contracts face constrained spot availability as the company prioritizes platform diversification rather than volume expansion.
Capital allocation and technology roadmap teams at battery recycling and precious metals processing firms face a shifted competitive landscape. Umicore's postponed battery recycling investment opens a window for competing recyclers to build scale before Umicore re-enters. Meanwhile, the Hoboken refining investment signals sustained leadership in precious metals processing, tightening the competitive gap for rivals attempting to challenge Umicore's refining margin advantage. Investors and financial planning teams evaluating Umicore's 2026 budget cycle can now anchor on a clearly staged EBITDA-positive Battery Cathode Materials milestone, reducing binary downside risk in the stock thesis.