Red Sea – October 17, 2026 -- Asia-Mediterranean container rates fell 12% to $4,200/FEU last week as carriers restored Red Sea and Suez Canal routings. The drop came even as Houthi forces seized a strategic port and island directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint, according to the latest Freightos weekly analysis.
Houthi seizure of Bab el-Mandeb port escalates energy threat
The Houthis previously controlled elevated terrain miles from the Red Sea. Together with last week's attack on a key Saudi pipeline, the seizure marks another escalation in Iran-backed steps to threaten energy markets.
Oil and bunker fuel prices have climbed back to May levels. Some experts say the strategies that cut energy prices from initial war-time highs, mostly by drawing on reserves, are wearing thin and could now lead to an actual fuel crisis.
Carriers expand Suez transits despite shipper objections
Container carriers continue to increase Suez Canal and southern Red Sea transits despite some shipper objections. Sea Intelligence estimates that more than a quarter of Asia-Europe capacity will sail via the Red Sea in September. That includes 35% of Asia-Mediterranean headhaul capacity and 50% to 60% of backhauls.
Asia-N. Europe capacity is returning more slowly, with 6% of headhaul and 30% of backhaul restored so far.
Asia-Europe rates ease but remain far above pre-peak levels
Asia-N. Europe prices fell 3% to about $4,300/FEU last week. Daily rates on both Europe lanes have eased to about $3,800/FEU so far this week.
Asia-Mediterranean rates are down $3,000/FEU from their July peak, against $2,000/FEU for N. Europe. The sharper fall may reflect the faster pace of Red Sea capacity restoration on the Mediterranean lane. Even so, N. Europe and Mediterranean prices remain more than 20% and 50% higher, respectively, than before peak season began in mid-May. Congestion at Far East origin ports and N. Europe hubs is still a factor in rate dynamics. It may keep on-time rates poor and backlogs elevated after Golden Week and well into October.
Transpacific rates hold at peak as NRF projects 9% October import drop
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01) rose 3% and Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03) rose 2%. Strong demand and Far East congestion are keeping pressure on spot prices.
The National Retail Federation projects US October ocean import arrivals will fall 9% from September, with a further decline in November. Port congestion and blanked sailings over the holiday stretch could keep rates elevated as demand cools. Most carriers do not appear to be planning October increases, but CMA CGM announced sharp peak season surcharges, especially for S. Asia-US lanes.
Air cargo rates stay 25% above year-ago levels on jet fuel costs
The Freightos Air Index global benchmark is down 5% from recent, possibly typhoon-related levels and 15% below early Iran war highs. It remains 25% higher than a year ago as jet fuel costs stay high. UK operations continue to recover from an air traffic control outage that grounded thousands of flights a week ago.
China-N. America prices climbed 3% to $6.52/kg and China-N. Europe rates rose 8% to $5.25/kg. N. Europe-N. America rates rose 1%.
Some observers do not expect a particularly strong Q4 peak despite global volume growth this year. Non-seasonal, AI-related hardware is a big volume driver, but only on certain lanes, notably Taiwan, South Korea and S. East Asia to the US. On those corridors, some forwarders expect tight capacity over peak season and are pushing some volumes to ocean or sea-air options.