St John's, Antigua and Barbuda – November 05, 2026 -- Commonwealth countries best prepared for artificial intelligence could gain $360 billion more in economic output over 10 years than those lagging behind, according to the new Ayre Index.
Only 15 of 56 Commonwealth states meet the youth AI readiness benchmark
The index was unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda. It examined conditions for 732 million people aged 15 to 29 across all 56 member states.
Under the study's middle scenario, the 15 qualifying countries could see their economies grow by a combined $389.2 billion after 10 years. The other 41 countries could gain $29.2 billion in total. The $360 billion difference is twice the $174 billion in development aid the world's major donor countries gave last year.
Singapore leads the rankings while Malawi and Lesotho finish last
Malta, Australia, Britain and Canada follow Singapore in the top five. Among the Commonwealth's 21 African members, only Mauritius, South Africa and Nigeria reached the benchmark.
Network coverage in Togo and Malawi has not translated into usage
The study found that installing networks does not automatically create opportunity. In Togo, 4G coverage reaches almost everyone, yet fewer than half of young people report using the internet. In Malawi, electricity reaches a fifth of the population.
Enthusiasm also runs ahead of capability. About 90% of young Nigerians surveyed expected to use AI for work or education within a year, but Nigeria scored 0.8 out of 10 on conventional digital capability.
Meeting the benchmark does not guarantee jobs. South Africa qualified, yet unemployment stood at 46.3% among its young labour force.
Calvin Ayre urges governments to build skills and opportunities for young people
Calvin Ayre, the entrepreneur and philanthropist who founded the think tank behind the index, said "Nobody can afford to be complacent." Governments, he said, must give young people the skills and opportunities to succeed.
The study drew on 1,128 sources. It also exposed how little comparable evidence exists on young people's actual AI capabilities in some countries.
Its central warning is that access alone is insufficient. Skills, affordable connectivity, routes into employment and support for entrepreneurs will determine whether AI creates new businesses and better jobs or reinforces existing economic divides.