St John's, Antigua and Barbuda – November 05, 2026 -- Canada could add C$100.85 billion to GDP over the next decade from AI under a moderate IMF-based scenario, but weak education and training provision may limit those gains, according to the inaugural Ayre Index from the Ayre Think Tank.
The Index ranked Canada fifth among 56 Commonwealth countries with an overall score of 70.2 out of 100. Singapore, Malta, Australia and the United Kingdom placed ahead. The findings were released during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Antigua and Barbuda, attended by King Charles III and Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Canada scores 9.4 out of 10 on access and capability but 5.3 on education
Canada scored 9.4 for both meaningful access and digital, data, media and AI capability. Its score for education and training delivery was 5.3. The Ayre Think Tank frames the central question as how Canada converts strong infrastructure and youth interest into practical capability.
Researchers model C$51.19 billion to C$150.44 billion in AI-linked GDP gains
Researchers applied International Monetary Fund scenarios to Canada's economy. The moderate case yields a C$100.85 billion AI-related GDP increase over ten years. The conservative estimate is C$51.19 billion and the optimistic case is C$150.44 billion.
Only 37.7% of Canadian 15-year-olds use AI chatbots weekly for schoolwork
The Think Tank's analysis of OECD PISA 2025 data found that 37.7 per cent of Canadian 15-year-olds use AI chatbots for schoolwork at least weekly. The OECD average is approximately 46 per cent. Statistics Canada research found that just 10 per cent of employed 15- to 24-year-olds used generative AI at work over a 12-month period.
The Index also found no explicit reference to AI in the teacher-policy evidence it used for Canada, which draws on UNESCO's country profile on technology in education.
Lisa Taylor, founder and CEO of Challenge Factory, said Canada's education systems must move young people beyond AI readiness to AI fluency, including the ability to question AI outputs.
White paper sets five global priorities for governments and educators
The accompanying white paper lists five priorities: affordable and reliable access to technology; education that develops practical skills; stronger routes from training into employment and enterprise; AI tools suited to local languages and needs; and safeguards that let young people question automated decisions. It urges governments, educators and development partners to identify the barriers young people face in each country before directing investment.
Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank, said governments now have to decide what to do with the results and that "nobody can afford to be complacent."
C. Justin Robinson, pro vice-chancellor and campus principal of the University of the West Indies, Five Islands Campus, contributed to the white paper's foreword. He argues that young people must do more than consume AI products made elsewhere and need an equitable stake in how these systems are governed.