Global – October 17, 2026 -- Typhoon-driven congestion and elevated fuel costs could set a higher floor for container rates before the pre-Lunar New Year rush begins, according to Freightos Group's latest Global Freight Outlook webinar, hosted by Head of Research Judah Levine.
Far East and North Europe backlogs could take months to clear
Typhoon-driven backlogs in the Far East persist, and congestion at key North European hubs is lingering. The backups could take months to unwind completely. Together with high fuel costs, they could keep upward pressure on rates.
Red Sea returns advance as Houthi–Saudi escalation adds risk
All the container alliances plus MSC will send some vessels through the Red Sea by the end of the month. However, the sharp Houthi–Saudi escalation in recent days, including missile strikes on Riyadh, raises the risk of renewed attacks on container vessels. Such attacks could reverse the progress.
Hormuz attacks intensify while Gulf-bound boxes keep rerouting
Iran has stepped up attacks partly in response to crude volumes recovering via alternative channels. The impact on containers is unchanged, as Gulf-bound cargo continues to reroute. Bunker fuel prices have kept climbing despite reports of recovering Middle East crude exports.
Transpacific rates ease as Asia–Europe enters contract season
Transpacific rates are easing as peak demand fades after Golden Week. Asia–Europe rates have fallen steadily since mid-July. Carriers may seek to push rates up as tendering season gets underway.
AI hardware lifts air cargo as Chinese e-commerce exports weaken
Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport are disrupting Saudi air cargo, but the broader market impact has so far been limited. Chinese air e-commerce exports show more signs of decline. AI-related data center hardware has emerged as a significant demand driver on Asia–North America lanes.
Air cargo rates remain elevated on strong demand and high fuel costs. That sets the baseline from which rates will likely climb through the Q4 peak season.