Munich – November 10, 2026 -- A retailer starting with a 2.5% EBIT margin slides into losses in its fourth year without countermeasures, according to a model calculation by consultancy Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) on German online retail.
Costs grow 2.2 percentage points faster than the German e-commerce market
A&M puts annual cost growth in German e-commerce at 6.1%, against market growth of 3.9%. The gap has widened continuously since 2023, according to the analysis. Higher logistics, personnel and IT costs weigh on profitability, as does the expense of winning new customers.
Customer acquisition costs climb about 9% a year
Under A&M's underlying assumptions, customer acquisition costs (CAC) rise by roughly 9% annually, making each additional sale more expensive to generate. Customer service, logistics, personnel and IT spending add to the cost base.
Retailers with already thin operating margins face the greatest risk. A&M says the trend can threaten their survival.
Model shows operating margin falling to minus 1.1% after five years
In A&M's scenario, a retailer with an initial EBIT margin of 2.5% turns loss-making in year four. After five years, its operating margin stands at minus 1.1%, even though the market keeps growing.
A&M describes the shift as structural rather than a short-term cost spike. If costs rise permanently faster than revenue, growth itself becomes a profitability risk, the consultancy states. Additional sales increasingly fail to absorb the higher costs.