WIESBADEN – November 05, 2026 -- The number of private households in Germany will fall by 2% to 5% by 2050, from 41.8 million in 2024 to between 40.9 million and 39.7 million, under moderate or relatively old population scenarios. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports this in its Household Projection 2026. The decline would reverse the rise in household numbers recorded since German reunification in 1990.
Only a relatively young population would keep the household count at or above the 2024 level, with growth of 1%. That scenario requires a markedly higher birth rate combined with high net immigration.
Destatis models three population scenarios for the first time
The moderate scenario assumes only modest shifts in birth rates, life expectancy and migration. The relatively old scenario assumes persistently low births, a sharp rise in life expectancy and low net migration. The relatively young scenario assumes clearly rising births, a small gain in life expectancy and high net immigration.
The projection covers 2025 to 2050 and builds on variants 2, 4 and 5 of the 16th coordinated population projection. All figures cited come from the trend scenario, which extends long-term changes in household size distribution and also accounts for shifts in how households form.
Single-person households grow to as many as 19.2 million by 2050
Single-person households are already the largest group, at 17.9 million in 2024. Their number will reach between 18.5 million (relatively old population) and 19.2 million (relatively young population) in 2050. By then 23% to 24% of people in private households will live alone, up from 21% in 2024.
The number of single-person households is expected to fall among 20- to under 40-year-olds. Destatis cites a shrinking population in that age group and a trend toward later family formation. All three variants show growth in single-person households aged 60 and over, with the steepest increases among 60- to under 70-year-olds and those aged 80 and older.
Two-, three- and four-person households decline in every variant
In 2024 Germany had about 13.6 million two-person, 4.8 million three-person and 3.9 million four-person households. All three categories shrink by 2050 in every scenario if current trends continue. Households with five or more people, numbering 1.6 million in 2024, grow by 3% only under the relatively young population assumption.
Eastern German states lose up to 12% of households
Eastern German non-city states record falling household numbers in all three scenarios. The steepest drop comes under the relatively old population assumption, with 12% fewer households in 2050 than in 2024. In western German non-city states and the city-states, the outcome ranges from growth to stagnation to decline depending on the variant.
Destatis counts households with several residences at each location, because they use housing and infrastructure at each. Since 2020 the Microcensus has used a different definition, main-residence households, so its figures are not directly comparable. Full results by federal state are available in the GENESIS-Online database, table 12421.