Cologne – November 07, 2026 -- North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) won 2.1 gigawatts of capacity, or 41 percent of the total awarded, in Germany's first tender for new gas-fired power plants. Even so, two leading energy economists question whether the state can end lignite-fired power in the Rhenish mining area in 2030 without risking supply security and higher prices.
Bundesnetzagentur awards NRW 2.1 GW, but plants arrive a year after the coal exit
The federal network regulator announced the results this week. The plants are due on the grid by 2031 at the latest, one year after the agreed lignite phase-out. Awards from a second bidding round are expected in the new year.
Löschel expects supply problems in NRW in winters 2031 and 2032
Andreas Löschel, an energy economist in Bochum and adviser to Federal Economy Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU), said policymakers must re-examine the supply situation after the tenders. On current data, he said, NRW will run into problems in both winters. He has chaired the independent expert commission that assesses the energy transition for the federal government since 2011, and he urged the state's CDU-Green coalition to check how the timelines fit together and what adjustments the coal exit needs.
Manuel Frondel of the RWI - Leibniz Institute in Essen went further. He argued that falling plant capacity automatically pushes prices up, and that the phase-out cannot work without risking supply security and rising power prices. He expects the early exit decision to be reversed.
Reiche to review coal plant closures only after second tender round
Reiche will assess the implications for coal plant shutdowns only once the second round is awarded. A ministry spokesperson said the key factor is the effect on supply security and declined to pre-empt the evaluation. NRW Economy Minister Mona Neubaur (Greens) expects the federal report in spring or early summer, which would fall after the NRW state election in April. Minister-President Hendrik Wüst (CDU) did not comment on the coal exit when asked.
FDP accuses state government of stalling before the April election
FDP parliamentary group leader Henning Höne called for more honesty. He suspects the state government is playing for time with federal help so that its flagship early coal exit does not have to be scrapped before the vote.
Federal Economy Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), the NRW government and energy group RWE agreed in 2022 to bring the lignite exit forward from 2038 to 2030.