Oslo – October 11, 2026 -- Only 2.1 GW of offshore wind capacity has reached final investment decision (FID) so far in 2026, while more than 12 GW is expected to enter operation this year, according to TGS | 4C's latest quarterly Global Market Overview.
TGS | 4C forecasts 5.6 GW will reach FID by year-end. That would make 2026 the second-lowest year for offshore wind investment decisions since 2020.
Consent awards of 22.2 GW point to the second-highest year on record
Final consents are advancing strongly, with 22.2 GW forecast to be awarded in 2026. Early-phase development assets and projects under construction are both progressing, but developers remain cautious about committing capital to the next generation of projects.
Global offshore wind capacity stands at around 92.7 GW in operation, with a further 41.2 GW under construction and 7.1 GW at FID.
Ivar Slengesol, Managing Director and VP of TGS | 4C, said energy security concerns are giving offshore wind a political boost, while general market uncertainty makes financing harder.
Steel prices up 53% and borrowing costs at 15-year highs squeeze project economics
Long-term borrowing costs in the UK, US and euro area remain around their highest levels in 15 years. Steel prices are 53% higher year-on-year. Prolonged geopolitical uncertainty adds to the pressure on development and financing costs.
TGS | 4C estimates that a one percentage-point increase in the cost of capital raises the levelised cost of electricity for an offshore wind project by around 9–11%.
European monopile and jacket capacity makes a structural foundation shortage unlikely
The report forecasts around 19,400 foundations will be installed globally between 2026 and 2040. Monopiles remain the preferred type, and floating foundations are expected to account for 11% of demand.
In Europe, available monopile and jacket manufacturing capacity means a structural supply shortage is unlikely. Lead author Jordan May, senior analyst at TGS | 4C, said the analysis gives developers, EPC contractors and investors greater visibility of the supply-chain capacity needed to deliver future growth.
TGS | 4C trims its 2040 global outlook to around 474 GW
TGS | 4C revised its long-term global offshore wind outlook to around 474 GW by 2040. The revision reflects continued uncertainty around project economics, financing, policy and delivery timelines.
The report is available exclusively to TGS | 4C subscribers. This edition introduces a deep dive into offshore wind foundation concepts. The TGS | 4C team will be at Stand B4.413 during WindEnergy Hamburg 2026.