Valley Forge, Pa. – November 05, 2026 -- PJM Interconnection expects 182,426 MW of operational capacity this winter against a forecast peak demand of about 147,500 MW, a level that would set a new winter record, while reserve margins continue to tighten as demand outpaces new supply.
The grid operator for 13 states and the District of Columbia also expects to export an average of about 3,200 MW to neighboring systems. Its all-time winter peak stands at 143,700 MW, set on Jan. 22, 2025.
Data center load lifts forecast winter peak by 7,500 MW since 2022
New load growth, especially from data centers and other Large Load customers, is driving steady annual demand increases. Forecast winter peak demand has risen by about 7,500 MW, or 5%, since 2022.
PJM cites rising demand, ongoing generator retirements and slow new-project timelines as the factors eroding reserve margins. The number of flexible generation resources that can respond quickly to PJM's directions is also falling. Under the most probable scenario, PJM forecasts adequate reserves after accounting for expected outages and exports. The National Weather Service predicts a slightly warmer winter across the entire PJM footprint.
Generator outages on the scale of Winter Storm Elliott could expose the system
Outages of the magnitude seen during Winter Storm Elliott, about 46,000 MW, could leave the system vulnerable to power outages. Transmission constraints heighten the risk in the BGE, Pepco and Dominion zones in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, where power is harder to import from other parts of the system.
In early 2026, PJM recorded hourly winter peak loads above 130,000 MW for eight straight days, from Jan. 26 to Feb. 2. It was the most prolonged period of extreme cold since the 1990s, and reliability was maintained.
Demand Response activations reach 15 in two years versus eight in the prior eight
PJM modeled higher-stress scenarios with demand of up to 152,200 MW and lower generation availability, from generator outages or weather-related renewable underperformance. Those studies show reliability can be maintained using both Pre-Emergency and Emergency Demand Response programs.
Demand Response, which pays customers in advance to cut consumption on request, was activated 15 times in 2025 and 2026. That compares with eight activations in the previous eight years.
PJM will also seek Department of Energy emergency orders, which let designated generators exceed permitted emission levels during system emergencies. It has received DOE emergency authority to direct data centers and other Large Load customers to run backup generators as a last resort. PJM has never used that authority.
ReliabilityFirst site visits triple to 30-35 as PJM extends program to SERC
PJM and ReliabilityFirst, which oversees reliability and compliance for much of the footprint on behalf of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, have raised generator site visits from under 10 before 2023 to an expected 30-35 this year. Generators that hosted visits have seen reduced outage rates compared with those that did not. PJM is launching a similar program with SERC in the remaining areas of the footprint.
David Souder, Executive Director of System Operations, said the system operates with "less room for error," making generator performance more critical.
Mandatory protocols in PJM's Cold Weather Preparation Guideline and Checklist (Manual 14D, Attachment N) incorporate lessons from past events, including Winter Storm Fern in January 2026. NERC now requires generators to provide extreme cold weather temperature data, and PJM is collecting minimum operating temperatures for its fleet. PJM will also test generators that have not run for several weeks before winter, and it holds weekly winter operational reviews with major natural gas pipelines.