Hyderabad – September 19, 2026 -- The global small arms market is projected to grow from $10.75 billion in 2026 to $13.41 billion by 2031, a 4.53% CAGR, according to a new report from Mordor Intelligence.
Military modernization programs push demand for larger-caliber, modular rifle platforms
Procurement initiatives in Canada and India are driving adoption of newer rifle systems using 6.8 mm and 7.62 mm calibers, the report finds. The US Army's Next Generation Squad Weapon initiative exemplifies the shift toward advanced small arms designed for greater range, accuracy, and armor-penetration capability. Similar requirements among NATO members and Middle Eastern buyers are expected to sustain procurement activity for manufacturers and component suppliers.
Civilian firearm demand offsets volatility in military procurement cycles
Steady consumer interest in compact, optics-ready pistols is supporting a more consistent revenue base for manufacturers, the report notes, alongside rising demand for accessories, optics, ammunition, and training services. This civilian segment continues to provide a buffer against fluctuations tied to defense budget cycles.
Asia-Pacific expands domestic small arms production capacity
India, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, and Australia are scaling up local manufacturing and upgrading small arms programs, according to the report. China continues to advance domestic platforms, though geopolitical constraints limit its export reach. North America remains a significant market, with modernization efforts in the United States and Canada driving interest in new weapon platforms even as differing firearm regulations across countries create varied conditions for suppliers.
Phani Kumar, Senior Research Manager at Mordor Intelligence, said the firm's assessment combines current market data, segment analysis, regional coverage, and company-level research to give decision-makers a structured basis for comparing demand across end-user segments.
Report tracks segmentation across type, caliber, and end-user categories
The market is segmented by type (pistols, revolvers, rifles, machine guns, shotguns), caliber (5.56 mm, 6.8 mm, 7.62 mm, 9 mm, 12.7 mm), operation mode, and end user (civil/law enforcement versus military). Companies covered include Smith & Wesson, Sturm Ruger, SIG SAUER, FN Browning Group, Beretta, Heckler & Koch, GLOCK, Colt's Manufacturing, Kalashnikov Concern, Barrett Firearms, Česká zbrojovka, and Israel Weapon Industries, among others.