Antalya – November 12, 2026 -- Countries that depend less on oil imports reduce the GDP impact of oil supply shocks by around 0.25 percentage points, according to a new S&P Global report released during COP31. Higher import dependence is associated with an extra 0.25-point GDP loss two years after a shock.
The report, Adopting Clean Technologies: The Energy Resilience Dividend, combines analysis from S&P Global Energy and S&P Global Ratings under the S&P Global Institute. It covers nine advanced economies, with case studies of Europe and China.
Europe's renewables build-out reduces exposure to energy shocks
EU non-hydro renewable generation is up nearly 340 terawatt-hours since 2021. That is 70% more than the 2016-2021 increase. European clean tech investment in 2026 is expected to more than double 2021 levels.
Electric vehicles displace 1.9 million barrels of oil demand per day
S&P Global Energy estimates that battery electric and plug-in hybrid light vehicles on the road globally will displace 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026, nearly 2% of global oil demand. China exported nearly 2.5 million EVs in the first half of 2026, more than double the year-earlier period. That extends the resilience effect beyond its domestic market.
China's dominance of clean tech supply chains creates new dependencies
China dominates nearly all parts of the clean tech supply chain, from mining and processing of key metals and minerals to components and finished technologies. The report says this makes supply chain diversification increasingly important to macroeconomic resilience.
Marion Amiot, Head of Climate Economics at S&P Global Ratings, said managing concentrated supply chains and new external dependencies will be an "increasingly important part of the resilience equation" as economies electrify.
S&P Global describes the publication as a thought leadership report. It is not a rating action and was not discussed by a rating committee.