Brussels – September 18, 2026 -- A global 5% cap on virgin plastics production would cut global household welfare by $128.4 billion, compared with just a $0.5 billion decline under targeted recycling policies achieving the same reduction in plastic leakage, according to a new Oxford Economics study commissioned by the International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA).
The report, Evaluating Policy Pathways to End Plastic Pollution, is the second phase of Oxford Economics' analysis for ICCA, following its 2024 study Mapping the Plastics Value Chain.
Targeted recycling policies generate 68% more recycled plastic than a production cap
Oxford Economics compared a scenario with a 5% cap on virgin plastics production against one that directs stronger collection and recycling incentives to regions with the greatest potential to cut mismanaged waste. The targeted approach would add 33.6 million metric tons of recycled plastic, versus 19.9 million metric tons under the cap.
Production cap would raise plastic prices 8.5%, targeted policy holds prices flat
Under the cap scenario, combined virgin and recycled plastic prices would rise 8.5%, disproportionately affecting low-income households. Under the targeted recycling scenario, prices would decline 0.2%.
Global output falls $20.2 billion under the cap versus a $0.2 billion gain with targeted policy
The production cap would cut global output by $20.2 billion, while the recycling-focused scenario would produce a $0.2 billion increase, the study found.
Every modeled region would see household welfare decline under the cap
Household welfare losses under the production cap scenario would total $38.5 billion in East Asia, $37.7 billion in Western Europe, $22.1 billion in North America, $8.8 billion in Southeast Asia, $6.1 billion in the Middle East and $6.0 billion in Latin America.
"Plastics are deeply embedded in products and supply chains, and other materials cannot readily replace them in many applications,