Redwood City – October 06, 2026 -- Worldwide telecom capital expenditure climbed approximately 5 percent year-over-year in the first half of 2026, outpacing expectations set at the start of the year, according to Dell'Oro Group. The uptick follows several years of declining operator investment.
Equipment revenues track capex gains across six core programs
Aggregate manufacturer revenues across Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network, Radio Access Network, and High End Router & Aggregation also rose roughly 5 percent Y/Y in the first half of 2026, mirroring the capex trend.
Dell'Oro holds long-term forecast steady despite stronger start
Despite the improved first-half performance, Dell'Oro Group made only negligible revisions to its multi-year outlook. Worldwide telecom capex is projected to grow at just a 0 to 1 percent CAGR between 2025 and 2030, reflecting a maturing investment cycle after major 5G and fiber coverage buildouts concluded.
Capital intensity set to fall from 18% peak to 14% by 2028
Capital intensity, which peaked at 18 percent in 2022, is forecast to decline to around 14 percent by 2028 before ticking up modestly as early 6G investment begins to emerge.
Operator spending priorities shift from coverage to capacity
Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell'Oro Group, said operators are now in a stronger capacity position following the completion of 5G and fiber investment cycles, with focus moving toward capacity, modernization, automation and efficiency. Improving operator revenues are also helping to reduce capital intensity ratios even as overall network investment levels remain flat.
Equipment vendors to outgrow carrier capex through 2030
Telecom equipment revenues are projected to grow at a 2 to 3 percent CAGR between 2025 and 2030, outpacing carrier capex growth, partly due to incremental demand from cloud providers. The report covers more than 50 telecom operators across actual and five-year forecast data by carrier, region, country—including the United States, Canada, China, India, Japan and South Korea—and by wireless and wireline technology.