SHERIDAN, WYOMING – May 6, 2025 – U.S. consumer confidence tumbled for the fifth consecutive month in April, according to the latest data from The Conference Board, highlighting growing economic anxiety and a potential warning sign for future business and labor market conditions. The Consumer Confidence Index® fell to 86.0—its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic—driven by a significant deterioration in consumers' outlook on business conditions, employment, and personal finances.
Expectations Plummet to Recessionary Levels
The Expectations Index fell sharply to 54.4, marking its lowest reading since October 2011 and well below the 80-point threshold that typically signals a forthcoming recession. Consumers expressed a distinctly negative outlook across all forward-looking indicators:
- Just 15.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve in the next six months, down from 17.8% in March.
- Only 13.7% anticipated more jobs ahead, compared to 16.7% last month.
- The share of consumers expecting their incomes to increase dropped to 15.0%, while those expecting a decline rose to 18.2%.
“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers' expectations… reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future.”
These results underscore growing concerns over macroeconomic headwinds, with Guichard noting that “the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.”
Rising Inflation Fears and Market Volatility Intensify Concerns
Economic uncertainty appears to be mounting, exacerbated by surging inflation expectations and financial market instability. April saw average 12-month inflation expectations reach 7%, the highest level since November 2022, while nearly half of surveyed consumers (48.5%) expected stock prices to decline over the next year—a sentiment not seen since 2011.
The most frequently cited concerns among respondents included:
- Rising tariffs and their impact on pricing and the broader economy.
- High cost of living, with continued worries over food and gas prices.
- Declining confidence in stock market stability and investment prospects.
Mixed Signals on Present-Day Conditions
Despite the grim forward-looking sentiment, consumers’ assessments of current economic conditions showed relative resilience:
- 19.2% of consumers reported business conditions as “good,” up from 18.3%.
- Job availability remained relatively robust, with 31.7% saying jobs were “plentiful,” though down from 33.6% in March.
However, the proportion saying jobs were “hard to get” rose slightly, and assessments of family financial situations weakened. “Expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years,” Guichard added, indicating a shift from generalized economic concern to personal financial anxiety.
Broad-Based Decline Across Demographics and Spending Intentions
April’s decline in confidence was widespread across age and income groups, with the sharpest drop reported among 35–55-year-olds and households earning over $125,000 annually. Political affiliation showed no significant influence on the downturn.
Consumer spending intentions also took a hit:
- Plans to purchase homes and cars dropped on a six-month moving average.
- Interest in vacations and big-ticket items such as appliances and electronics declined.
- Dining out remained the top service spending intention, but April saw one of the largest month-over-month drops ever recorded in this category.
Strategic Implications for B2B Markets
For B2B leaders across retail, financial services, and durable goods sectors, the weakening consumer sentiment presents both challenges and opportunities. Businesses should brace for a potential softening in consumer demand while also adapting offerings and marketing strategies to address economic anxieties.
As inflation, interest rates, and labor market dynamics continue to evolve, staying attuned to consumer sentiment will be critical for shaping strategic decisions in the months ahead.
Learn more at https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.