Washington – October 16, 2026 -- The United States now produces just 1% of global aluminum, down from industry leadership 25 years ago, according to a study presented by economist Dr. Adam Hersh at an event hosted by the American Primary Aluminum Association (APAA).
Smelter count falls from 23 to four, none military-grade
In 2000, 23 primary aluminum smelters operated in the United States, against 10 in Canada. Four remain in the US, and none can produce military-grade aluminum. The last US smelter capable of making the high-purity aluminum required for many defense applications closed in 2022, leaving the country reliant on foreign sources.
Hersh, a research fellow at the University of Massachusetts, attributed the decline to foreign government subsidies and unfair trade policies. He called the loss of smelting capacity a market failure that exposes the US economy to supply chain disruption.
Canadian imports rose 30% after tariff exemption
After Canada received an exemption from US aluminum tariffs, Canadian aluminum imports surged 30% while US primary aluminum production fell 30%, according to the APAA. The shift contributed to the loss of thousands of American aluminum jobs.
Petraeus links supply security to wartime access
General David Petraeus, speaking in a fireside chat with Century Aluminum CEO Jesse Gary, said foreign sources of primary aluminum become unavailable in crises, citing the war in Iran. He warned against dependence on China, Russia and the Middle East for metals essential to the military.
The Modern War Institute at West Point describes aluminum as a foundational material for aircraft, armored vehicles, naval systems and munitions components.
Producers credit 50% Section 232 tariff for investment
President Donald Trump imposed Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum in June 2025. Gary said the 50% program, with no exemptions for primary aluminum, has driven historic investment. Century Aluminum is working to rebuild US primary production in South Carolina, Kentucky and Oklahoma.
David Kaplan, an owner of Magnitude 7 Metals, said the tariff will allow the company to create hundreds of aluminum jobs in Missouri's Bootheel.
Chinese offshore investment keeps supply glut growing
Hersh said other countries continue adding to the global aluminum supply glut, most recently through Chinese offshore investments in Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Angola. He argued that a strong Section 232 program and other incentives will remain essential to rebuilding the US industry.